Update: COVID-19 in Rural America – September 10, 2020

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The COVID-19 pandemic is a global health crisis affecting nearly every community – including Rural America. While there are still many uncertainties, the health crisis changes daily and the pandemic’s impact on rural communities continues to grow and evolve. The Housing Assistance Council (HAC) presents summary findings of COVID-19 in rural America as of early September 2020.

 

TOTAL REPORTED COVID-19 CASES FEBRUARY 20- SEPTEMBER 10, 2020

The first reported case of COVID-19 outside of metropolitan areas came on February 20, 2020. As of September 10, 2020, there were more than 732,000 reported cases of COVID-19 and over 16,700 associated deaths in communities outside of Metropolitan Areas. All but 14 counties outside of metropolitan areas now have reported COVID-19 cases, and nearly three-quarters of outside metro counties have also reported associated deaths related to the virus.

 

RURAL SHARE OF COVID-19 REPORTED CASES

Initial impacts of COVID-19 were greatest in urban communities and these areas still have the largest share of cases and deaths. But the rural share of COVID-19 cases continues to rise nationally. On August 10, 2020, approximately 12 percent of new COVID-19 cases and 18 percent of deaths were reported in rural communities. On September 10, 2020, 17.9 percent of new cases and 19.7 percent of new deaths were reported outside of metropolitan areas.

REPORTED RURAL COVID-19 RATES PER 100,000

Over 99 percent of counties outside of Metropolitan areas have reported COVID-19 cases, but the virus’ impacts vary widely across the nation’s rural geography. There are several instances of extremely high per-capita infection rates in rural areas – notably on some Native American lands and communities with meat packing and correctional facilities.  From August 10- September 10, the rural case and death rates increased most dramatically in the upper Midwest and in some Appalachian and southern counties.

ABOUT THE DATA

The information in this brief derives from Housing Assistance Council tabulations of data from The New York Times, based on reports from state and local health agencies, and the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2014-2018 American Community Survey.
In these analyses, the terms “rural” and Outside Metropolitan Areas are synonymous and refer to counties and counts outside of OMB designated Metropolitan Areas. 

National Eviction Moratorium Issued

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September 2, 2020 – The Centers for Disease Control has issued an eviction moratorium that will protect tenants against eviction for nonpayment of rent if they provide landlords with affidavits certifying specific information including their inability to pay. The moratorium will take effect September 4 and remain in place through December 31.

The CDC’s order explicitly recognizes the link between eviction and spreading communicable diseases. It applies throughout the U.S., except where more stringent state, tribal or local government moratoriums are in place.

It differs in some important ways from the CARES Act’s moratorium, which expired in late July. The new order is not limited to tenants in federally assisted housing. It does allow landlords to charge late fees on delayed rent payments. Also, unlike the CARES Act, the CDC’s order provides criminal penalties for violating the moratorium: a fine of at least $100,000 or a year in jail or both.

USDA and Other Federal Agencies Extend Foreclosure Moratoriums for Homeowners

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Updated August 31, 2020 – Earlier this year, as Americans suffering from the economic impacts of the coronavirus pandemic began to have trouble making their mortgage payments, several federal agencies took steps to protect the homeowners who use their programs. Their moratoriums on foreclosure were due to expire on August 31 but have now been extended through December 31. The following list provides links to announcements from the relevant agencies.

There was also a moratorium on eviction of tenants receiving federal assistance, which was imposed by the CARES Act in March. That expired on July 24 and has not been renewed. Some state and local eviction moratoriums remain in effect, though many have ended. Tenants renting single-family homes whose owners’ mortgages are supported by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac are protected from eviction through December 31.

Rural Unemployment Rate Declines, but 1.8 Million Rural Workers Still Unemployed

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To access an interactive version of this map visit: https://arcg.is/Ov8bq 

The most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that rural labor markets have rebounded somewhat from astronomical unemployment rates earlier this spring. Yet, over 1.8 million rural workers are still unemployed – many as a result of the economic fallout from the COVID-19 health crisis. The June jobs numbers revealed a seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate of 8.8 percent for counties outside of metropolitan areas, down from the revised rural unemployment rate for May of 11.3 percent. The number of rural jobless fell from 2.2 million in May to an estimated 1.8 million for the month of June. At its peak in April, the BLS estimated approximately 2.8 million rural jobless with an unemployment rate of 13.6 percent in rural America.

While the rebound in the number of rural workers to just over 19 million is a positive development, there are still substantial concerns in rural labor markets as the nation still grapples with the COVID 19 health crisis. The rural unemployment rate is still nearly double the rate for February 2020 prior to the COVID crisis. Furthermore, the June job numbers do not reflect potential economic backsliding from the dramatic rise in COVID 19 cases over the summer. In the month of July there were almost as many new reported rural cases of COVID-19 than had been reported for the prior 5 months in total.

POTENTIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RAMIFICATIONS FOR RURAL HOUSING

Jobs and employment conditions have traditionally been a bellwether and leading indicator for housing trends. While the unemployment caused by COVID-19 is unprecedented and unpredictable, the continued high jobless rates signal the potential for serious concerns across the housing spectrum. Many Americans have been buoyed by large scale federal unemployment benefits and economic stimulus which largely came to an abrupt end in August and has yet to be clearly reestablished. If rural unemployment rates continue at these elevated levels, the collateral impacts to almost all sectors of the housing market could be substantial – notably the ability of unemployed households to make rent and mortgage payments.

About the Data: Information for this Brief derives from HAC tabulations of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) reporting. https://www.bls.gov/lau/  In this Brief the terms “Outside Metropolitan Area” and “Rural” are used synonymously and refer to counties and population outside of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) designated Metropolitan Areas. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Bulletin-18-04.pdf

Updates and Recommendations for PPP Loan Recipients

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As of August 6, 2020, more than 5.1 million organizations have received loans through the Paycheck Protection Program, which was created to help small businesses and their employees during the economic recession resulting from the coronavirus pandemic. With such rapid escalation and use of the program, questions, revisions, and clarifications to the program are to be expected. Most recently, SBA released long awaited guidance on PPP loan forgiveness.

Following are resources, recommendations, and a summary of prior PPP information to be aware of as you implement, seek forgiveness of, and account for your PPP loan.

Recent Resources and Posts

PPP Changes and Guidance

On June 5, 2020, the PPP Flexibility Act was signed into law, authorizing key changes to the program. A joint statement by the Small Business Administration and the U.S. Department of the Treasury summarized the changes:

  • Extension of the Covered Period from 8 Weeks to 24 weeks. This extends the covered period (used to spend loan proceeds on eligible expenses) for loan forgiveness from eight (8) weeks after the date of loan disbursement to 24 weeks after the date of loan disbursement. NOTE: Borrowers retain the option to use an eight-week covered period.
  • Minimum Percentage of PPP Loan Forgiveness for Payroll Costs Decreased from 75% to 60%.
  • Changes to the Term of Loans Made after the Passage of the Act. The minimum maturity of loans was increased to five years for loans made after June 5, 2020. The interest rate remains at 1%. Borrowers with loans made before after June 5, 2020 would be required to renegotiate loan terms.
  • Expansion of Social Security Deferral. Borrowers that receive loan forgiveness can defer depositing the employer side of Social Security through December 31, 2020. The deferred employer Social Security tax will be due on December 31, 2021 (50%) and December 31, 2022 (50%).
  • Two New Exceptions to Receive Full PPP Loan Forgiveness. Two exceptions allow borrowers to achieve full PPP loan forgiveness if they are not able to restore FTEs or pay rates by December 31, 2020. Borrowers will not receive a reduction in loan forgiveness due to FTE or pay rate decreases if they are able to:
    1. Document an inability to return to the same level of business activity as such business was operating at before February 15, 2020, due to compliance with requirements established or guidance issued by the Secretary of Health and Human Services, the Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention or the Occupational Safety and Health Administration during the period beginning on March 1, 2020, and ending December 31, 2020, related to the maintenance of standards for sanitation, social distancing or any other worker or customer safety requirement related to COVID–19; or
    2. Document that they are unable to rehire individuals who were employees on February 15, 2020, and unable to hire similarly qualified employees.

On June 16, 2020, SBA issued a new interim final rule providing guidance on PPP and the changes made under the PPP Flexibility Act, including:

  • How to calculate employee and owner compensation for loan forgiveness in the new 24-week covered period created by the Paycheck Protection Flexibility Act.
  • The Paycheck Protection Flexibility Act tripled the duration during which PPP recipients could spend the funds and still qualify for loan forgiveness –  a span of time called the covered period. The interim final rule adjusts and adds to previous guidance for calculating loan forgiveness under the original eight-week covered period.
  • The PPP allows loan forgiveness for payroll costs – including salary, wages, and tips – for up to $100,000 annualized per employee, or $15,385 per individual over the eight-week period. The new interim final rule establishes the 24-week maximum for full loan forgiveness at $46,154.
Covid-19 Reported Cases per 100,000 population - August 2, 2020

Update: COVID-19 in Rural America – August 2, 2020

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The COVID-19 pandemic is a global health crisis affecting nearly every community – including Rural America. While there are still many uncertainties, the health crisis changes daily and the pandemic’s impact on rural communities continues to grow and evolve. The Housing Assistance Council (HAC) presents summary findings of what we know about COVID-19 in rural America as of early August 2020.

 

Covid-19 Reported Cases in Rural America - August 2, 2020

TOTAL REPORTED COVID-19 CASES FEBRUARY 20- AUGUST 2, 2020

On March 16, 2020, the CDC issued guidelines for Social Distancing. As of August 2, 2020, there were more than 460,000 reported cases of COVID-19 and deaths from the virus have now surpassed 10,000 in communities outside of Metropolitan Areas. All but 32 counties outside of metropolitan areas have reported COVID-19 cases, and now over 60 percent of these counties have also reported associated deaths related to the virus.

Outside Metropolitan Cumulative Covid-19 Cases - August 2, 2020

 

NEWLY REPORTED COVID-19 CASES FEBRUARY 20 – AUGUST 2, 2020

The level of new COVID-19 reported cases grew dramatically in July and the number of reported cases outside of metropolitan areas continued to skyrocket as well. From July 2 to August 2 there were almost as many new reported rural cases (225,553) than had been reported for the prior 5 months in total (235,201). There were a reported 3,381 rural deaths related to COVID-19 in the past month as well.

Covid-10 New Reported Cases - August 2, 2020

RURAL SHARE OF COVID-19 REPORTED CASES

Initial impacts of COVID-19 were greatest in urban communities and particularly devastating to some metropolitan areas. As of August 2, 2020, approximately 10 percent of COVID-19 cases and 7 percent of associated deaths have been reported in rural communities. But the rural share of COVID-19 cases continues to rise nationally.

Covid-19 New Reported Cases - August 2, 2020

Reported Rural COVID-19 Rates per 100,000
Over 98 percent of rural communities have reported COVID-19 cases, but the virus’ impacts vary widely across the nation’s rural geography. There are several instances of extremely high per-capita infection rates in rural areas – notably on some Native American lands and communities with meat packing and correctional facilities.  From July 2- August 2, the case and death rates increased most dramatically in the rural Southeast.

Covid-19 Reported Cases per 100,000 population - August 2, 2020

 

To access all graphics and interactive maps visit: https://arcg.is/1HH0H4.

ABOUT THE DATA

The information in this brief derives from Housing Assistance Council tabulations of data from The New York Times, based on reports from state and local health agencies, and the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2014-2018 American Community Survey.
In these analyses, the terms “rural” and Outside Metropolitan Areas are synonymous and refer to counties and counts outside of OMB designated Metropolitan Areas. 

HAC urges support of rural housing programs in Covid-19 relief efforts

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HAC would like to thank all of the organizations that expressed their support of rural housing programs!

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Organizations

Congress is currently working to negotiate a fourth COVID-19 relief package. Rural housing programs have yet to receive any supplemental funding to address this growing crisis in small towns and rural communities. HAC is circulating a sign-on letter to Congressional leadership in support of including rural housing funding in the next relief package. You can view the text of the letter here. As a valued friend of HAC, we hope that you will add your organization’s name to this effort.

If you have any questions, please reach out to HAC’s Government Relations Manager, Samantha Booth, at samantha@ruralhome.org. The deadline to sign on is Wednesday, July 22nd. We appreciate your help.

 

Rural Unemployment Skyrockets After Economic Fallout from Covid-19

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Unemployment Outside of Metro Areas - March to April 2020

To access an interactive version of this map visit: https://arcg.is/1maDDW

The most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that rural labor markets were deeply impacted by the COVID-19 health crisis. The April jobs numbers revealed a seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate of 13.7 percent for counties outside of metropolitan areas. The rural unemployment rate for March was 4.9 percent and the overall rural unemployment rate had been trending downwards until the onset of the crisis. Across the nation over 2.8 million rural workers were unemployed in April – an astounding increase of 1.8 million jobless in one month. Like the health crisis itself, the increases in unemployment varied by community but most rural communities experienced large increases in their unemployment rates.

Potential Unemployment Ramifications for Rural Housing

Unemployment Rate Outside Metropolitan Areas-2019-2020

Jobs and employment conditions have traditionally been a bellwether and leading indicator for housing trends. While the unemployment caused by COVID-19 is unprecedented and unpredictable, such high jobless rates signal the potential for serious concerns across the housing spectrum. Many Americans have been buoyed by large scale federal unemployment benefits and economic stimulus. But most of those resources are slated to end abruptly in the coming months. If rural unemployment rates remain anywhere near these historic levels, the collateral impacts to almost all sectors of the housing market could be substantial – notably the ability of unemployed households to make rent and mortgage payments.

To view the full interactive Story Map please visit: https://arcg.is/WGm4r

About the Data: Information for this Brief derives from HAC tabulations of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) reporting. https://www.bls.gov/lau/  In this Brief the terms Outside Metropolitan Area and Rural are used synonymously and refer to counties and population outside of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) designated Metropolitan Areas. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Bulletin-18-04.pdf

Governance, Planning and CARES Act Information for Rural Housing and Arts Organizations

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The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, signed into law on March 27, 2020, provides assistance for small businesses (including rural housing and arts organizations). HAC has compiled details and resources on this page.

Check out all of HAC’s coronavirus resource pages here.

On this page:

CARES Act Information

UnidosUS CARES: Explaining Covid-19 Relief for Latino Families, UnidosUS (videos in English and Spanish)

Coronavirus Relief Options, Small Business Administration

Loans Available for Nonprofits in the CARES Act, National Council of Nonprofits, April 5, 2020

The Small Business Owner’s Guide to the CARES Act, Senate Small Business Committee

Small Business Provisions in the CARES Act, Senate Small Business Committee, Minority (Democratic)

What the Families First Coronavirus Protection Act Means to Nonprofits, National Council of Nonprofits, March 2020 (this Act preceded the CARES Act and was signed into law on March 19, 2020)

Find a State Association of Nonprofits through this page

Interim Guidance for Administrators and Leaders of Community- and Faith-Based Organizations to Plan, Prepare and Respond to Coronavirus Diseas 2019, Centers for Disease Control

Pivoting to Remote Work – COVID-19 Response Course Track for Nonprofits, TechSoup (free online courses)

SBA Economic Injury Disaster Loans and Advances – for Agricultural Businesses

 NEW HERE ON MAY 12: The Small Business Administration is currently accepting applications for Economic Injury Disaster Loans and Advances ONLY from agricultural businesses with 500 or fewer employees. EIDL loans can be used to pay fixed debts, payroll, accounts payable, and other bills that would have be paid had the pandemic not occurred. EIDL is not intended to offset lost sales or profits, or to pay for business expansion.

NEW HERE ON MAY 12: Stakeholder Announcement: USDA Leadership … Update Stakeholders on Accessing SBA Relief Programs, April 24, 2020

Funding Resources Not Related to the CARES Act

NEW HERE ON MAY 12: Covid Grants Program for organizations in Arkansas, $5,000-$150,000, no application deadline, Blue & You Foundation

NEW HERE ON MAY 12: Emergency loans and grants for organizations affected by COVID-19, Open Road Alliance. “We will prioritize organizations and activities that have a clear and direct role in ‘flattening the curve’ and thus limiting, shortening, or minimizing the economic and social, as well as health effects of the pandemic.”

NEW HERE ON MAY 12: Grants for organizations working in Central Appalachia, up to $3,000, deadline May 31, Appalachian Community Fund

NEW HERE ON MAY 12: Support for organizations working in Texas, Reliant Gives

NEW HERE ON MAY 12: Foundation Requests for Proposals for Covid-19 Relief, Chronicle of Philanthropy, May 12, 2020

Updated Daily: Help for Nonprofits During the Coronavirus and Uncertain Economic Times, Chronicle of Philanthropy

FindHelp.org (“Find food assistance, help paying bills, and other free or reduced cost programs, including new programs for the COVID-19 pandemic”)

Funding for Coronavirus (COVID-19) [for nonprofits], Candid, undated but updated regularly

Williams Foundation for organizations in these states, March 27, 2020

HIP COVID-19 Rapid Response Migration Fund, Hispanics in Philanthropy, March 18, 2020

Coronavirus Rapid Response Funds, Chronicle of Philanthropy, March 12, 2020

Planning for Ongoing Changes

Review Policies and Procedures

  1. Review your organization’s policies related to illness and sick leave to ensure your policies and practices are consistent with public health recommendations and are consistent with existing state and federal workplace laws.
  2. Develop a plan for communicating with your employees in a rapidly changing environment. Identify how will you communicate with employees if changes are required.
  3. Evaluate how staff can work from home. This will require you to consider the aspects of each role that can be completed remotely, access to technology, and access to broadband.
  4. Establish a short-term plan to increase staff effectiveness within one week. If needed, draft a 15-day plan to coordinate resources, tools, and technology to increase the effectiveness of as many staff as possible.
  5. If you have essential workers or your organization is still operating in public settings, make it easy for people to practice good hygiene by providing tissues and no-touch disposal receptacles and placing alcohol-based hand rubs in multiple places in common spaces.
  6. See the CDC’s Interim Guidance for Businesses and Employers to Plan and Respond to Coronavirus Disease for recommendations and considerations for creating an infectious disease outbreak response plan.

How to Adapt Your Nonprofit’s Sick-Leave Policy During Covid-19, Lisa Schohl, The Chronicle of Philanthropy, March 30, 2020
How Charities Can Make Working From Home Work for Everyone, Scott Westcott, The Chronicle of Philanthropy, April 21, 2013
Pivoting to Remote Work – COVID 19 Response Course Track for Nonprofits, TechSoup (free online courses)

Review Your Organization’s Finances

  1. Understand your financial position in terms of net assets and liquidity.
  2. Identify implications on revenue and expenses.
  3. Manage your cash flow.

From Sustainability to Survivability: How Nonprofits Can Manage Uncertainty Amid Crisis, Steve Zimmerman, Spectrum Nonprofit Services, undated
Financial Leadership in the Face of Impossible Choices, Curtis Klotz, Innovation in Nonprofit Finance Blog, March 18, 2020

Continuity and Recovery Planning

A business continuity plan is a written document outlining how a business will operate during an emergency.

Business Continuity and Disaster Recovery Plan Template, Nonprofit New York
Nonprofit Disaster Planning and Recovery, TechSoup
Crisis Management Essentials, Nonprofit Risk Management Center
The Future is Now: Preparing for the Unknown Crisis, Nonprofit Risk Management Center

Managing Grants and Fundraising

Do you have grants that are tied to deliverables? Government contracts to provide services? Assess your organization’s capacity to meet deliverables over the next 30, 60, and 90 days. Communicate with funds and government contacts to inform them how your work is impacted.

How Nonprofits Should Approach Fundraising and Donor Communications during the Coronavirus Pandemic and Financial Crisis, nonprofitPR.org
10 Things Fundraisers Can Do From Home During the COVID-19 Pandemic, Adam Ruble, sgEngage, March 17, 2020

Board Member Responsibilities

What Nonprofit Board Members Should Be Doing Right Now to Address the COVID-19 Situation, Joy Folkedahl and Lindsay Tallman, BoardSource, March 16, 2020
Nonprofit Governance: Coronavirus and COVID-19, Gene Takagi, NEO Law Group, March 11, 2020

Participate in Public Decision-Making

Participate in the process at all levels of government and with funders to share the needs of your clients and the communities you serve. Things are too chaotic to wait for an invitation. Inform yourself, request to be heard, and be a part of the process.

The Paycheck Protection Program (Emergency SBA 7(a) Loans)

Small Business Administration PPP site

Applications are accepted by SBA-approved lenders.  Most entities report that time is of the essence because funds are expected to be oversubscribed.

  1. Most statewide nonprofit associations are putting out information and providing email updates.  Hopefully these statewide organizations will also track which lenders are making loans for each state, region.  Here are two such resource guides for Virginia (where some of the following information comes from) and Georgia.
  2. This is the best and simplest resource for quickly comparing and learning the basics of CARES Act loan options for nonprofits, including the Paycheck Protection Program.
  3. The US Chamber of Commerce created the easy to understand Coronavirus Emergency Loans resource guide addressing eligibility, loan forgivability parameters, and the information required to apply.
  4. It appears that all lenders will use the same SBA Paycheck Protection Program Loan template.  It will help local nonprofits clearly understand what they need in order to apply.

Resources Related to Coronavirus and Rural Housing

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On this page HAC collects the latest news on USDA policy, federal relief and stimulus funds, stakeholder recommendations and more to help local rural housing organizations respond.

Check out all of HAC’s coronavirus resource pages here.

On this page:

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (USDA) 

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT (HUD)

CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION

FEMA

LISTS OF STATE AND LOCAL EVICTION MORATORIA

OTHERS

WEBINARS

 

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