One year after the first reported case of Coronavirus outside of a metropolitan area, Rural America experienced over 4 million cases and 78,000 deaths from the pandemic.
By Lance George, Keith Wiley, and Dan Stern
The first case of COVID-19 outside of metropolitan areas was reported on February 20, 2020. One year later, there are more than 4 million reported cases of COVID-19 and 78,500 associated deaths in communities outside of metropolitan areas. The health pandemic was slower to come to rural America, but no community was spared. All counties outside of Metropolitan areas have reported COVID cases and 96 percent have COVID related deaths. Rural coronavirus cases peaked in mid-December and the rural share of daily reported cases rose to more than 20 percent in mid-October. During this time period, nearly one-third of the nation’s COVID deaths were in rural communities. The level of rural infections and deaths have declined from their peak in early winter but the health, human, and economic toll of COVID-19 on rural Americans continues.
While the effects from the coronavirus have been widespread, the ultimate, and most tragic impacts were the deaths of more than 78,000 rural Americans from the deadly disease. Reported deaths from COVID-19 reached their highest levels in the winter months of 2020-21. For the first 10 months of the pandemic (February 20 – November 20, 2020), there were an average of 118 daily reported deaths from COVID-19 outside of Metropolitan Areas. From November 20, 2020 to January 20, 2021, the rural death rate from COVID-19 more than quadrupled to an average of 510 per day. Over the last month, the rural COVID death rate has begun to subside slightly – but there was still an average of 491 rural COVID-related deaths per day between January 20 and February 20, 2021.
Rural America simultaneously has some of the highest and lowest rates of reported COVID-19 cases in the nation. The chronological and geographic progression of the disease is equally uneven. Some rural communities were impacted in the first waves of the virus in spring of 2020, while a few rural communities had no reported cases from COVID 19 until 9 or 10 months into the pandemic. Invariably, the virus’ progression throughout rural America was uneven as infection rates or “Hot Spots” generally evolved regionally throughout the year. There have been several instances of extremely high per-capita infection rates in rural areas – notably on some Native American lands and communities with meat packing facilities and prisons, and rural communities of color and regions of persistent poverty.
Rural America simultaneously has some of the highest and lowest rates of reported COVID-19 cases in the nation. The chronological and geographic progression of the disease is equally uneven. Some rural communities were impacted in the first waves of the virus in spring of 2020, while a few rural communities had no reported cases from COVID 19 until 9 or 10 months into the pandemic. Invariably, the virus’ progression throughout rural America was uneven as infection rates or “Hot Spots” generally evolved regionally throughout the year. There have been several instances of extremely high per-capita infection rates in rural areas – notably on some Native American lands and communities with meat packing facilities and prisons, and rural communities of color and regions of persistent poverty.
Initial impacts of COVID-19 were greatest in urban and suburban communities and these areas still have the largest share of cases and deaths. Since February 20, 2020, approximately 14.4 percent of total reported COVID-19 cases and 15.7 percent of deaths were in rural communities. The rural share of COVID-19 cases grew to its largest levels over the late summer and fall of 2020. Between August 20 and December 20 ,2020, Rural COVID infections comprised 17.7 percent of U.S. Reported Cases and 23.5 percent of the nation’s COVID-related deaths. Over the past 30 days, the rural share of the nation’s new cases and deaths has dropped to 12.6 and 16.4 percent, respectively.
COVID-19 has disrupted nearly every aspect of life and culture in rural America, and the economic disruptions are most acutely felt through job losses. The most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that rural labor markets are still suffering economic fallout from the COVID-19 health crisis. The December jobs numbers revealed the seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate increased slightly to 5.6 percent for counties outside of Metropolitan Areas. Across the nation over 1.2 million rural workers were unemployed in December. Like the health crisis itself, rates of unemployment varied by county, but most rural communities still have elevated unemployment rates.
Jobs and employment conditions have traditionally been a bellwether and leading indicator for housing trends. While the unemployment caused by COVID-19 is unprecedented and unpredictable, such high jobless rates signal the potential for serious concerns across the housing spectrum. Many Americans have been buoyed by large scale federal unemployment benefits and economic stimulus. But some of those resources are ending and the CDC’s eviction moratorium is slated to end March 31, 2021. If rural unemployment rates remain high the collateral impacts to almost all sectors of the housing market could be substantial – notably the ability of unemployed households to make rent and mortgage payments.
Housing instability is particularly concerning for rural renters who typically have lower incomes, less savings, higher unemployment due to COVID, fewer protections and less ability to weather economic shocks. According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s most recent PULSE survey, approximately 18 percent of renters nationally are behind on their rent payments and 13 percent have no confidence in their ability to make next month’s rent.
There are also concerns on the supply side of rural housing markets. Many landlords have declining rental income because of policies and adjustments related to the pandemic. Rural housing market dynamics are also distinct in this realm. On one hand, the levels of “free and clear” homeownership without a mortgage are highest in rural America and this could help provide stability for many homeowners during the economic crisis. But in rural rental markets, rental properties tend to be smaller and are also more likely to be owned by individuals who may be less able to weather a loss of rental income. Approximately 45 percent of rural renters live in single-family homes, compared to only 19 percent in cities and 34 percent in suburbs.
The last year has been difficult for every community in the United States – and the entire world. Daily life has been disrupted, millions have lost their jobs, and every day, 215 rural Americans lost their lives[1] to the virus. COVID-19 is an unprecedented event and comparisons are invariably flawed. There is general consensus that the 2008 economic crisis came later to rural America and the initial shock was not as great as in some urban and suburban markets. But the economic, social, and political fallout from that crisis lingered and the recovery was much slower for many rural communities. There are signs of positive trends in infection rates, treatments, and vaccinations – but the economic and social picture is still unclear. Rural Americans have always shown remarkable resilience and perseverance. These attributes – as well as rural recognition, strategies and policy solutions will be needed in our recovery from a difficult 365 days – and counting.
[1] Daily average total.
COVID-19 data and information in this brief derives from Housing Assistance Council tabulations of data from The New York Times, based on reports from state and local health agencies, and the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2015-2019 American Community Survey.
Unemployment data derives from HAC tabulations of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) reporting.
Housing insecurity data derives from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey. The Pulse Survey provides data to help understand the experiences of American households during the coronavirus pandemic. The survey asks questions about how education, employment, food security, health, housing, social security benefits, household spending, consumer spending associated with stimulus payments, intention to receive a COVID-19 vaccination, and transportation have been affected by the ongoing crisis.
In this Brief the terms “Outside Metropolitan Area” and “Rural” are used synonymously and refer to counties and population outside of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) designated Metropolitan Areas. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Bulletin-18-04.pdf
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